MerchantPro: Romania’s eCommerce market is set to reach €8.5 billion in 2026, under pressure from non-EU platforms, AI, and more cautious consumer behavior
The expansion of global platforms is accelerating: in 2025, 1 in 4 Europeans shopped on Temu, while the platform reached 4.7 million monthly active users in Romania. Romania’s eCommerce market reached approximately €8.1 billion in 2025 and…
The expansion of global platforms is accelerating: in 2025, 1 in 4 Europeans shopped on Temu, while the platform reached 4.7 million monthly active users in Romania. Romania’s eCommerce market reached approximately €8.1 billion in 2025 and could exceed €8.5 billion in 2026. However, growth is entering a more competitive and less predictable phase than in previous years. According to the MerchantPro eCommerce Insights 2026 report, inflation, pressure from international marketplaces, shifts in consumer behavior, and the growing impact of AI on product discovery and conversions are reshaping the rules of competition in the local online commerce sector.
MerchantPro’s analysis shows that the estimated market growth rate was around 6% in 2025, in a context where transaction volumes stagnated. For 2026, a 5% increase is expected, driven by more cautious consumption, declining consumer confidence, and structural transformations within the digital ecosystem. Market growth this year could be supported by the increasing adoption of online shopping and the maturation of the customer experience offered by merchants, through investments in technology, personalization, and conversion optimization. At the same time, the introduction of taxes for non-EU platforms, both locally and at the European level, could reduce part of their cost-based competitive advantage. On the other hand, risks remain significant: pressure on consumer budgets, socio-economic and political uncertainty, as well as the growing market share of external platforms may limit the pace of development of local eCommerce. 2025, a two-speed year for eCommerce The MerchantPro Compass analysis, based on the evolution of stores active on the platform, confirms the same market dynamics in 2025. The data indicates an average order value growth of 6.3%, in line with the estimated market evolution of around 6%, while the number of transactions increased by only 0.8%. This suggests that growth was mainly driven by higher average basket value rather than a significant increase in order volumes. In the first half of the year, transaction volume decreased by 0.29%, while in the second half it recorded a modest increase of 1.66%. At the same time, vertical analysis shows a market with different stages of development and dynamics: segments such as Electro & IT (+21%) or Pharma (+65%) recorded strong growth, while categories such as Fashion (-10.3%) or Children’s products (-12%) felt the pressure of external competition and changes in consumer behavior.
“The real stake is shifting from gross growth to value control and the ability of local players to remain competitive in an ecosystem increasingly dominated by marketplaces and AI. In 2026, the differentiators will be operational efficiency, data, and the ability to build loyalty,”
